Analysis of domestic photovoltaic market size and application scenarios
1. Industrial Chain (1) Upstream: polysilicon and silicon wafers Polysilicon is the most upstream link in the photovoltaic industry chain and the basic raw material for manufacturing monocrystalline and multicrystalline silicon materials. In the silicon wafer sector, Jiangji Green Energy and Zhonghuan Semiconductor have successfully dominated the silicon wafer market supply structure by continuously increasing investment in technological innovation, continuously optimizing production processes, and actively promoting capacity expansion strategies. Their products are not only widely used in the domestic market, but also exported to many countries and regions overseas. In terms of silicon wafer technology, large-size and thin-wafer technology are the main development trends. Large-size 182mm and 210mm silicon wafers have become the mainstream market, with a market share exceeding 95%. At the same time, with the development of N-type cell technologies such as TOPCon and HIT, the demand for N-type silicon wafers is growing rapidly, and the market share of N-type silicon wafers is expected to exceed 50% in 2025. Figure: Domestic polysilicon monthly output (10,000 tons) Chart: Silicon wafer price trend (2) Midstream: Battery Cells and Components Solar cells are a core component of the photovoltaic industry chain, and their conversion efficiency directly impacts the power generation performance of photovoltaic systems. Currently, the main solar cell technologies on the market include PERC, TOPCon, HJT, and xBC. The theoretical upper limits of conversion efficiency vary among different technology paths: PERC is 24.5%, TOPCon is 28.7%, HJT is 28.5%, and xBC is 29.1%. In terms of mass production conversion efficiency, PERC is approximately 24%, TOPCon is approximately 26%, HJT is approximately 26%, and xBC is approximately 27%. Figure: Comparison of cell processes (3) Downstream: System Integration and Application The downstream segment primarily includes photovoltaic system integration, installation, and operation and maintenance services. As the cost of photovoltaic systems continues to decline, application scenarios are expanding, from large-scale ground-based power stations to distributed photovoltaics, from building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) to water-based photovoltaics and transportation photovoltaics, forming a diversified application landscape. By the end of March 2025, China's installed photovoltaic power generation capacity reached 945 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 43.4%, including 534 million kilowatts of centralized photovoltaic power generation and 411 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaic power generation. In the first quarter of 2025, China's newly connected photovoltaic power generation capacity reached 59.71 million kilowatts, including 23.41 million kilowatts of centralized photovoltaic power generation and 36.31 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaic power generation. In the distributed...
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