According to the Global Photovoltaic Market Outlook for the First Quarter of 2024 released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the global photovoltaic installed capacity will increase from approximately 444GWdc in 2023 to 655GWdc this year.

The report presents multiple prediction scenarios for global photovoltaic installed capacity, with conservative and optimistic predictions of 520 GWdc and 655 GWdc, respectively. In the moderate scenario prediction of global photovoltaic installed capacity, the global installed capacity will reach 574GWdc.

Leading countries in global photovoltaic installation

China will continue to dominate the installed capacity in 2024 (313.7GWdc), accounting for 54.7% of the world's newly added photovoltaic installed capacity this year. Following closely behind are the United States (40.6 GWdc), India (18.1 GWdc), Brazil (17 GWdc), and Germany (16.5 GWdc).

Three European countries will increase their photovoltaic installed capacity this year, including Spain (7.54 GWdc), the Netherlands (5.52 GWdc), and Italy (5.25 GWdc). Other countries in the top ten in terms of photovoltaic installed capacity include Japan (5.47 GWdc) and South Africa (4.29 GWdc).

The study also examined the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity of European countries until 2030. Germany leads the European continent with a capacity of 215GW, while Italy and Spain rank second (79.6GW) and third (79.3GW) respectively. By 2030, France (47.6GW), Poland (46.3GW), and the Netherlands (45.7GW) will also become countries with larger photovoltaic installed capacity.

The global solar photovoltaic industry achieved remarkable growth in 2023, with installed capacity increasing from 252GWdc in 2022 to 252GWdc in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 76.2%. Last year, China added 268GWdc (216.9ac) of installed capacity, accounting for 60.4% of the global installed capacity. Last year, the United States added 35.2 GWdc, by Brazil (16.9 GWdc), Germany (14.1 GWdc), and India (13.6 GWdc).

Polycrystalline silicon prices down 74%

The study also examined the price of polysilicon, with the average price dropping by 74% in 2023 and dropping to $8.1 per kilogram in the last week of 2023.

In China, multiple suppliers have closed down or announced their exit from the polycrystalline silicon production industry, including China Silicon, which has an effective production capacity of approximately 3000 tons. Other companies that are about to cease production or have already ceased production include China Southern Glass Holdings (with an annual production of 9000 tons), REC Solar North (with an annual production of 5000 tons), etc.

According to the current production plans of active enterprises, Bloomberg NEF predicts that approximately 2.4375 million tons of polycrystalline silicon will be produced in 2024, with the five major enterprises accounting for 66% of the production.

The price of polycrystalline silicon for Chinese manufacturers this year is $6-7 per kilogram, compared to the price of approximately $22 per kilogram for Chinese companies in early 2024.