From 2021 to 2022, the epidemic continued to impact the photovoltaic supply chain, resulting in a high price level for photovoltaic modules due to insufficient silicon supply, and the installed demand was deferred until 2023. With the large-scale release of new capacity and output of silicon materials, prices at all links of the industrial chain have returned to normal levels. It is estimated that the global photovoltaic installation demand will significantly increase in 2023, with the new installed demand reaching 351 GW, an annual increase of 53.4%. However, attention still needs to be paid to various issues such as the slowdown in global economic growth and high inflation, which may lead to lower installed demand than expected.
In 2023, the demand for photovoltaic installation will be ranked from high to low in Asia Pacific, Europe, the Americas, and Middle East Africa. The new installed capacity demand in the Asia Pacific region in 2023 is estimated to be 202.5GW, with an annual increase of 55.4%. Among them, markets such as China, Malaysia, and the Philippines have seen rapid growth in installed capacity driven by policies, with the annual increase in installed capacity in these regions reaching over 40%; The installed growth in mature markets such as Japan, Australia, and South Korea tends to be stable.
In Europe, it is estimated that the photovoltaic installed capacity in 2023 will be about 68.6GW, with an annual increase of 39.7%. The main installed demand will come from Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain. Due to the persistently high electricity prices, various countries have provided policy support such as subsidies or tax rebates for photovoltaic products, and the price of photovoltaic modules has fallen, resulting in a growth in the installed capacity of photovoltaic products for European users in 2023. In addition, as the European Union eases the licensing and approval time for photovoltaic installation, and the price of photovoltaic modules decreases, it is expected that the number of ground power station projects in Europe will return to growth from 2023 to 2024.
In the Americas, it is estimated that the new photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by about 64.6GW in 2023, with an annual increase of 65.2%. The installed demand is highly concentrated in the United States, Brazil, Chile, and other places; Colombia and Canada will also usher in the peak period of grid connection in 2023. Previously, due to the impact of the United States UFLPA Act and the implementation of anti circumvention investigations on photovoltaic capacity in Southeast Asia, resulting in delays in the transportation of photovoltaic modules, the installation of ground power plants that are relatively sensitive to costs has slowed down, and this situation will be eased in 2023; Under the stimulus of the IRA Act, there are sufficient photovoltaic reserve projects in the United States, and the installed demand is expected to double. Brazil's distributed policy will continue to promote the vigorous development of distributed projects, while centralized projects are expected to see rapid growth again when the Brazilian government further opens up.
In the Middle East and Africa, the photovoltaic market has shown steady growth, with an estimated new installed capacity of 14.9GW, an annual increase of about 49.5%. The installed capacity increment in the Middle East and Africa region is highly dependent on bidding projects. Large photovoltaic ground power station projects dominate the market demand, with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Israel as the main incremental regions. The region is rich in lighting resources. Currently, the capacity of bidding projects to be built or under construction has exceeded 9GW. In addition to favorable policies, there is huge development space. It is expected that bidding projects will continue to grow in the future.