Recently, Tim Buckley, director of the Australian think tank Climate Energy Finance (CEF), said that by the end of 2024 or 2025, solar module prices may reach the threshold of $0.10 per watt. “This would significantly exceed the $0.10 per watt predicted by Dr. Martin Green three years ago.” He added that by the end of the century, new PV installations could already be between 600 gigawatts and 1 terawatt per year. this conclusion.

“I am very optimistic about the growth of global PV installations in the coming years. Buckley also pointed out that at a time when investment costs are soaring, the opportunity to invest in deflationary solar is a huge positive, reducing pressure on the cost of living and improving energy security.

Buckley said price pressure will increase globally due to the dizzying capacity increases announced by the solar industry, although he questioned the International Energy Agency's (IEA) recent forecasts in its World Energy Outlook 2023. According to the International Energy Agency, by 2025, the global cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity may reach 2 terawatts. "I think it's ridiculous for the IEA to think that the Chinese will only run their brand new factories 35 percent of the time," he added. “If these new capacities were operational for a full year, the IEA data would be expected to understate annual global PV installations by more than 50%.

Buckley estimates that solar panel prices will drop 40% this year. "This will give many investors in the United States, India, the European Union and China good reason to pause or reconsider the financial assumptions on which they have announced large-scale capacity expansions," he said. “In contrast, the U.S. and India both have import tariffs on solar modules that are 40% higher than Chinese products, so they are largely insulated from excessive price competition and have also benefited from a 70% cost drop in polysilicon prices last year save.

(This article is compiled from pv-magazine, please indicate the source when reprinting)